Interactive forecast · every figure editable
A three-year growth forecast you can re-point at any business
A working model rather than a screenshot of one. Name your own revenue segments, choose how each one is paid, add recurring revenue streams, set your operating costs, and the growth curve, quarterly revenue, margin and sensitivity grid all recalculate as you type. Nothing is sent anywhere: the whole model lives in this page, and the share link carries your numbers inside the URL.
Every input on this page is yours to change, including the segment names. The model runs 36 months in three 12-month phases, so the columns headed 1–12, 13–24 and 25–36 are years one, two and three.
Scenario
Assumptions
Two ways revenue arrives: volume-driven segments, where traffic converts into a paid action, and recurring streams, where a customer count pays a monthly fee. Costs, growth and paid acquisition sit alongside them.
Revenue segments, volume driven
| Segment | Start /mo | Action % | Model | Rate | Conv % |
|---|
Action % is the share of that segment's volume that takes the monetised action. Payout models: CPC pays on the action itself, so conversion is fixed at 100. CPL and CPA pay on a qualified lead or a completed sale, so the conversion rate is applied to the rate.
Recurring revenue streams
| Stream | By mo 12 | By mo 24 | By mo 36 | Fee /mo |
|---|
Customer counts ramp linearly between the milestones, so a stream is independent of site volume: subscriptions, licence fees, retainers, embedded products. Set the counts to zero to model the volume-driven business on its own.
Operating costs per month, by phase
| Cost line | Mo 1–12 | 13–24 | 25–36 | Paid? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Each line is constant within its 12-month phase and identical across scenarios. Tick Paid? on any line that buys volume: those lines, and only those, feed the paid acquisition maths on the right.
Monthly volume growth by phase, %
| Scenario | Mo 1–12 | 13–24 | 25–36 |
|---|
Growth compounds monthly inside each phase. The reference line is the floor you would reach anyway, drawn on the projection chart so every scenario is read against doing nothing.
Paid acquisition, cost per extra unit of volume
| Scenario | Mo 1–12 | 13–24 | 25–36 |
|---|
The ticked cost lines divided by the cost per acquired unit give new paid volume each month. It stays active for the life above, so paid volume accumulates and then settles. Paid volume takes the existing segment mix, so actions and revenue scale with it. Set the paid budget or the cost per unit to zero to model organic growth alone.
What the model does with this
Segment revenue is volume × action rate × payout, where payout is the rate for CPC and rate × conversion for the rest. Recurring revenue is customers × fee. Costs are the sum of the lines for that phase. Breakeven is the first month from which revenue covers costs for every remaining month, so a cost step-up in year two can push it later than the first crossing. Cumulative net is every month's revenue less that month's costs, carried forward across the horizon.
Projected monthly volume
Organic growth plus retained paid acquisition, across every segment, against the do-nothing reference.
Projected revenue by quarter, Base scenario
Each segment stacked with the recurring streams. Hover a band for its share of the quarter.
Revenue against operating costs, Base scenario
Where the forecast revenue line crosses the cost line, and stays across it, is the month the model turns over.
Annual summary, Base scenario
The same numbers as the charts, in a table, for anyone who would rather read than hover.
| Year | Avg volume /mo | Actions | Segment revenue | Recurring revenue | Total revenue | Costs | Net |
|---|
Revenue by line, per year
| Revenue line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | How it is paid |
|---|
Month by month, Base scenario
All 36 months in one run. Switch on more detail for organic against paid volume, month on month movement, revenue split by line, and every cost line as its own column of monthly spend.
Detail
Sensitivity, Base scenario
How the outcome moves if volume grows faster or slower than assumed (rows) and if payout rates land above or below your figures (columns). The outlined cell is your current setting, and darker cells are better outcomes.
Growth deltas shift all three phases of the selected scenario by whole percentage points, floored at zero. The payout multiplier scales every segment rate together. Paid spend, cost per acquired unit, retention, action rates, conversion, recurring streams and costs all stay where you set them. Hover a cell for all four metrics.
Method, and where to be careful
- Horizon is 36 months in three 12-month phases. Growth compounds monthly inside each phase, so a phase change is a step in the rate, not in the level.
- Paid acquisition uses geometric survival: new paid volume arrives each month and decays over the average life you set, which is why paid volume climbs and then flattens inside a phase.
- Paid volume adopts the current segment mix rather than its own, so it lifts every segment in proportion. If your paid traffic converts differently to organic, model it as a separate segment instead.
- Breakeven is sustained, not first touch: it is the first month from which revenue covers costs in every remaining month of the horizon.
- Cumulative net runs revenue less costs forward month by month. It is an operating view, so it carries no financing costs, no tax and no working capital timing.
- Payout rates, conversion rates and cost lines are yours to supply. Whatever loads by default is illustrative, so replace it with quoted rates and a real budget before the numbers get used.
- The share link encodes the whole model into the URL. It holds no personal data, but it does hold your assumptions, so treat it the way you would treat the spreadsheet.
Built by Joshua Pevy. The commercial modelling is the point; the page is just how it is delivered.